Yeah, it's a mess. And sure, the stock market may face some additional bottom testing as the summer wears on. But we're due for a short-term relief rally soon.

Yesterday's major news story capped a month of increasingly gloomy reports. According to the Conference Board, which has been taking the economic pulse of American households since 1967, consumer confidence fell in June to a 16-year low, and its fifth-lowest monthly reading ever.

On the face of it, that kind of news seems unrelentingly grim. Truth is, however, pessimism has now deepened to the point where (short of another Great Depression) it can't get much bleaker. If sentiment on Main Street is about as bad as it ever becomes, the logical next step is for the consumer's mood to brighten a bit.

Of particular interest for investors, ultra-low readings on the consumer confidence poll typically occur close to important stock market bottoms. In fact, over the past 40 years, whenever consumer confidence has fallen to the nether regions it now inhabits, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has risen significantly in the next 12 months, usually more than 20%.

I repeat: I expect a bumpy ride most of this summer as the stock market continues to digest ugly headlines from the mortgage crisis, the energy spike, the GOP's political travails and so on. However, rallies will break up the decline -- and cushion it -- until the market has built a solid base for a much stronger bounce in late 2008 and then into 2009.

We're about ready for one such rally now. Short-term technical gauges show the market almost as oversold as it was at the March lows. Look for an interim bottom to form sometime in the next two or three sessions, followed by a rebound to the 1350 to 1365 area on the S&P by early to mid-July.

Speculators who want to play this snapback can buy the July S&P 500 calls with a strike price of 1325 (ticker symbol SXYGE). For best results, place a limit order with your broker to buy on a dip to $20 or less. Take profits 50% above your entry point, and stop any loss 50% below your entry.

Remember: Options trading is for aggressive players. Don't risk more than you can afford to lose.