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China and India: Demand for Oil Begins to Tumble

Yesterday an event occurred that could ultimately help finally turn the frightening financial and consumer-discretionary bear market into a fun ride for the bulls.

For months, analysts (including myself) have been puzzled by the straight-up pattern in oil prices. We know that gasoline consumption in the USA is falling sharply, so how is it possible that prices at the pump have continued to rise at such a frenetic pace?

Forget the conspiracy theories and the fearmongering about "speculators." The main reason for the huge jump in prices is that fuel consumption in the emerging markets (especially India and China) is growing by leaps and bounds.

But wait a minute. Shouldn't sky-high prices curb those folks' appetite for oil, too?

Yes, in a world of true, honest pricing. However, the governments of India and China (as well as Mexico) have provided big subsidies to keep prices artificially low at the retail pump. In the past, Chinese drivers were paying about $2.40 a gallon for gasoline, a 40% discount to the retail price over here.

Then, on Thursday China announced an 18% increase in gasoline prices. I had expected the government to wait until after the Olympics, but apparently the cost of subsidies (now running at about $70 billion a year by my reckoning) forced the bureaucrats' hand.

Oil prices plunged $4.82 a barrel in New York as a result. If "that's all she wrote," the world will quickly forget the sudden change in China's gas pricing.

However, big trend shifts often start small. While I'm not predicting a crash in oil prices, demand in China and India (the latter boosted prices 10% a few weeks ago) may soon begin to cool.

If so, I could easily envision a 15%-20% drop in fuel prices here in the United States, enough to give consumer sentiment a lift. Retailers, transports, media and even our longsuffering banks would benefit.

In fact, several of my subscribers Profitable Investing portfolios could rise exponentially. I'm thinking about a anti-oil buy which just reported surprisingly good earnings this morning, despite an enormous past drag from fuel costs, in particular. Though, I assure you, this will not be the only stock we own which will see its share price rise in direct correlation to China's recent decision.

Visit back often for more news and advice on the ever-changing market and how it affects your investments.