It's subtle. But it's happening. Even as gurus complain that the credit crunch continues unabated, the stock market is slowly regaining its composure. While I'm still expecting a wild session here or there as Q1 earnings season unfolds, the market's own internal evidence suggests that a major low -- probably the low for the year -- is now behind us.

The latest indicator to "sing" is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX. VIX measures the prices (premiums) speculators are willing to pay for options traded on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.

When traders foresee a lot of volatility ahead (typically near a market low), options premiums skyrocket. By contrast, volatility -- and options premiums -- tend to decline as the stock market recovers.

For each of the past five days, VIX has closed below its 200-day moving average, a feat it has been unable to accomplish in more than a year. Again, it wouldn't surprise me if we got a brief bounce back above the average (which now stands at 23.05) sometime in the next week as earnings reports from the banking sector start to filter in.

However, a sustained drop below the 200-day marker, such as we've just seen, is unlikely to be a fluke. It represents the considered judgment of many thousands of players that market risk has peaked.

If so, stock prices should gradually improve as the year wears on. Eventually, the economy will perk up as well, though probably not in any meaningful way until the third or fourth quarter. Apocalypse has been averted -- again.